Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average figure of daily killings per month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent official figures. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder figures could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the least number of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, security analysts urged caution that using murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true considering the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide periods when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.