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At first, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "serious ramifications" in August should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing peace talks, he eventually enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would effectively benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal in reality compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. However, Russia's war is not only about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it stops functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in position the already split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that are a critical impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital if he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their current large number personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "All radical ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "immediate joint defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics vary from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not