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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.